Ai65 Energy Briefing: The U.S. Playbook for Ai Energy Dominance
Why Nuclear and Advanced Storage are top priorities.
Audience: Utility Leaders, Big Tech/Ai Leaders, Energy Executives, Policymakers
Overview: From Today to the 40-Year Horizon and Back
Energy as the True Input of AI
Artificial Intelligence is often framed as a story of chips, algorithms, and data. But those who look deeper understand the real foundation: energy. Every model trained, every datacenter cooled, every inference run across billions of devices depends on power. As AI doubles and doubles again, its electricity demand will overwhelm today’s patchwork grid.
The United States faces a choice. We can either allow ourselves to be distracted by tactical energy plays where we have no long-term advantage—or we can double down on the technologies where the U.S. can lead, dominate, and win the AI energy race. This article lays out the Ai65 Energy foresight arc: a 40-year plan for how America can secure the lowest-cost, most reliable energy for AI—while beating China in the global competition.
The Problem: AI’s Surging Energy Demand
Current Trend: AI datacenters may consume >20% of U.S. electricity by 2035. Training clusters, inference nodes, and edge computing will multiply load in ways unseen since electrification.
Patchwork Grid: The U.S. grid was largely built in the 1980s. It cannot handle high-density industrial loads of AI clusters or quantum labs without a wholesale rebuild.
Price Pressure: Rising demand drives prices higher. Without proactive buildout, AI becomes hostage to energy scarcity.
AI energy inputs are now as strategic as advanced semiconductors. Whoever controls cost-efficient energy wins the AI century.
The Climate Era Legacy
Over the past two decades, U.S. energy policy has been driven by climate ambition:
Renewable Subsidies: Solar, wind, and geothermal benefited from ~20% average subsidies through tax credits—compared with ~6% long-term for fossil fuels.
Capital Attraction: Subsidies worked; capital flooded into renewables, flattening early risk and building global supply chains.
Outcome: Renewables reached price parity in many regions. The goal of seeding the industry was achieved.
But the AI future changes the priority. 24/7 baseload is the lifeblood of AI. Intermittent renewables without storage are not enough.
Why This Matters Now (What’s at Stake)
The Choice Ahead: Strategy vs. Distraction
The U.S. now stands at a fork:
Option 1 (Distraction): Pour resources into replicating China’s dominance in solar panels and lithium-ion storage. The IRR of this catch-up race is low. China is too far ahead, and the U.S. would spend trillions for little long-term edge.
Option 2 (Strategy): Accept China’s dominance in commodity solar. Source panels globally, including from China. Invest selectively in U.S.-led advanced storage chemistries (sodium-ion, iron-air, flow batteries) where innovation can reset the cost curve. Then pour nearly unlimited resources into nuclear—the U.S.’s natural advantage.
The second path secures both short-term flexibility and long-term dominance.
Key Takeaways
Tactical Role: Solar + Advanced Storage
(2025–2040)
Solar has value, but only tactically:
Cheap Marginal MWh: In sunny states (AZ, NM, TX, CA), utility solar delivers daytime power at $15–25/MWh by 2040.
Paired with Storage: With 8–12h advanced storage, solar hedges costs during peak loads. Here, U.S. innovation in storage matters more than the panels themselves.
Jobs & Politics: Solar construction provides visible jobs and political cover while nuclear builds progress.
Geopolitics: The U.S. cannot win panel manufacturing; China controls >80% of the chain. But we can win storage by leapfrogging lithium.
Ai65 Position: Let China own solar modules. The U.S. invests in advanced storage. That allows sunny states to capture the tactical cost benefit, while America participates through domestic storage supply chains.
Strategic Core: Nuclear Supplants Natural Gas (2030–2065)
Natural gas has been the flexible baseload of the past two decades. But over the next 40 years, nuclear is the technology that can supplant gas and dominate baseload for AI.
Gen III+ & SMRs (2030s): Small modular reactors (SMRs) come online, faster to permit, safer, and scalable. IRRs in the 6–10% range with loan guarantees.
Gen IV (2040s): Advanced reactors burn 60–70% of uranium’s energy (vs <1% today). Thermal efficiency climbs to 40–45%. Costs fall to ~$40–60/MWh.
Safety & Flexibility: Passive safety designs and load-following operation make nuclear compatible with renewables and AI-driven grids.
U.S. Advantage: America has IP, regulatory frameworks, and a deep engineering base. China can scale concrete, but it cannot easily replicate U.S. nuclear innovation.
Ai65 Position: Nuclear is the long-term cornerstone. The U.S. must plow nearly unlimited resources into nuclear innovation, siting, and supply chains now—treating it like a Manhattan Project for AI energy.
Transformational Horizon: AI-Optimized Grids +
?maybe? Fusion (2045–2065)
Fusion is not science fiction—it is the possible endgame of the 40-year arc.
Fuel Abundance: One bathtub of seawater (deuterium) could power a city for a year.
Efficiency: Q > 20 is the target. Commercial fusion could deliver $30–50/MWh baseload by 2050.
Waste: Minimal, mostly helium.
Synergy with AI: Fusion plants paired with AI-optimized grids unlock true abundance.
Ai65 Position: The U.S. cannot sit idle. Fusion research must be seeded today, even as nuclear carries the load through 2050.
Barriers
Guarding Against Capitalism’s Blind Spots
Left unchecked, capital will always rush toward short-term profit: solar farms, gas peakers, quarterly IRRs. But this distracts from strategic investments needed to win the AI race.
Ai65 recommends a disciplined horizon framework:
Tactical (0–5 years): Gas + solar+storage + pilots. Government seeds long-term bets.
Strategic (6–15 years): SMRs, HVDC corridors, nuclear supply chain rebuild.
Transformational (16–40 years): Gen IV, fusion, AI-optimized grids.
Conclusion: How We Start Today
The U.S. Playbook: How to Win the AI Energy Race
Acknowledge Solar Reality: Don’t waste resources competing with China on panels. Source globally. Focus U.S. effort on advanced storage.
Dominate Storage Innovation: Invest in sodium-ion, iron-air, zinc-hybrid, and flow batteries. These are not China’s game.
Go All-In on Nuclear: Treat SMRs and Gen IV like a Manhattan Project. Standardize designs, streamline permitting, rebuild the supply chain, and export reactors worldwide.
Invest in Transmission: Build HVDC super-corridors linking sunny states, nuclear hubs, and datacenter clusters.
Seed Fusion Today: Fund 20–30 demo projects. Fusion must be ready by 2050.
Call to Action
The choice is clear. Solar is tactical. Storage is the U.S. innovation frontier. Nuclear is strategic. Fusion is transformational.
If America pours resources into solar panel catch-up, we lose. If we double down on nuclear and advanced storage, we win. By 2065, the U.S. can own the lowest-cost, safest, most reliable baseload power on Earth—fueling AI leadership for the century.
America must choose today. Leave China solar. Challenge and beat China in storage. Crush China in nuclear. This is how we win the AI energy race. Ai65 Energy is here to identify the path clearly.
Author: Tate Lacy
Organization: Ai65 Energy
Website: www.ai65.ai
Contact: tdlacy@gmail.com
Ai65 brings strategic foresight, AI expertise, and human-first thinking to leaders preparing for the next 40 years of AI innovation.
Additional Reading:
Fueling the AI Machine: The Road to AI Leadership
AI + Energy Demand
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2024 report: Data Centres and AI: Energy Use & Efficiency Trends
U.S. EIA (Energy Information Administration), Annual Energy Outlook
Nuclear
World Nuclear Association (WNA): Advanced Reactors & Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
“Why Nuclear Power Must Be Part of the Energy Transition” (Foreign Affairs, 2023)
Fusion
ITER Organization reports: Status updates on the world’s largest fusion project.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems (MIT spinoff): Private-sector - fusion timelines.
Fusion Industry Association Annual Report — fusion startups and investment.
Storage (Beyond Lithium)
Form Energy white papers (Iron-Air batteries).
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL): Long-Duration Storage Roadmap.
DOE ARPA-E program briefs on sodium-ion and flow batteries.
Geopolitics
“China’s Global Solar Dominance” (Harvard Belfer Center, 2022).
Brookings Institution (Energy Security papers)
